Exit Poll: Will we see repeat of what happened in Australia?

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was declared the winner of the recent parliamentary election on Saturday. In his victory speech, Morrison said, "I have always believed in miracles". What made him believe that his winning of election is a miracle? Unlike in India, where the general election is held every five years, in Australia elections are held every three years and no Prime Minister has succeeded in serving a full term since 2007. He has been the Prime Minister for nine months. Given this background, his re-election as Prime Minister is a miracle for him.

Nevertheless, there is another reason why his re-election is a miracle. All the exit polls showed a clear victory for the opposition Labour Party. A Nine-Galaxy poll showed Labour beating the governing Liberal coalition 52-48. What more for two years, polls put the Labour party ahead of the more conservative Coalition, which was led by Scott Morrison. While the gap progressively shrank in the six months ahead of the election, the figures were consistently in favour of a Labour win. Of the 16 polls held since the election was called last month, all went in favour of the Labour party. Even the exit polls predicted the return of the Labour Party after five years. The betting sites where the stakes are high too got it wrong.

After the end of the general election in India, all exit polls have clearly predicted the return of NDA government. Even the earlier opinion polls favoured the NDA government. Are we ready for a surprise on Thursday when the actual vote count begins? Prior experience has shown that exit polls of the last three elections have overplayed the NDA’s performance by 4.3 per cent, while it has underplayed the UPA’s performance by 8.9 per cent.

One of the reasons why we see such consistent biases in the exit poll is the way one responds to pollster’s questionnaire. It may be possible that someone voting for NDA is more vocal about his views while those favouring other parties may not be so. Hence, exit polls may get it wrong. Morrison is his victory speech paid tribute to 'the quiet Australians' who voted for the coalition.

The equity market is already discounting the return of NDA, however, if the actual result springs a surprise be prepared for the crude shock.