The crumbling dynasty and a rising son

The Assembly elections for five states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur) are over, and the results that have come are nothing short of a stunner. Although not many predicted the Congress to achieve great inroads, a decent show was always on the cards until Tuesday morning (6th February, 2012), when the party of Gandhis and Nehrus lost its face and the charm of the so-called heir apparent (read: Rahul Gandhi) fell flat. The Congress party performed so badly that it couldn’t even manage to hold on to Goa (winning a meagre nine seats). Although all this might not impact the overall fortunes of the Congress party, the results would dramatically alter the future course of many.

Uttar Pradesh:
The Mother Of All Battles

It is said that the keys to the Centre lie with Uttar Pradesh. This state, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, has always featured in all the national parties’ scheme of things. It is no wonder then, that Rahul Gandhi picked UP as his launch pad. And since the ‘Yuvraj’ was in the fray, the entire Congress bastion was in full force in the state. Their efforts were somewhat supported by the anti-incumbency wave and the very fact that no party has been able to achieve a feat of two continuous terms in the country’s most populous state.

Still, the Congress could not make many inroads, and was beaten black and blue by the Samajwadi Party (SP), a political outfit on course for an image makeover and a generational change. Akhilesh Yadav, its heir apparent, has led the party to a thumping victory. What needs to be mentioned here is that both Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav have infused young blood into their respective parties. However, the difference lies in their approach. While Gandhi filled the Congress with the Deoras, Pilots and Scindias (who are no better, and gained political position out of dynsatic rules), Yadav at least brought in people with some credentials. His election campaign was handled by professionals, MBAs from IIM-L. Media briefings were handled by Media Moguls, while detailed analyses were carried out for each and every public rally. Another point which worked for Yadav was the very fact that he is a grass root worker and understands the issues of the people. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi is, at best, imported material. It is indeed clear that Yadav is set to gain a strong footing in UP politics, and may be elevated to the national level as well.

While the whole of the Congress party has been insulating Gandhi by asserting that he cannot be held responsible for the poll debacle, the argument stands no ground. It is evident that though people like shaking hands with the Nehru-Gandhi scion, they do not trust him at all. This has become evident time and again.

Consequences Ahead

The Congress has not made enough gains, despite the electorate’s anti-incumbency in the state of Punjab. The current government of BJP-SAD has returned to power. This could have a negative impact on economic reforms, though a key uncertainty has been lifted. The results will not provide the political space for the government, or the confidence to carry through unpopular reforms. While limited fiscal consolidation and some movement on infrastructure is possible, unpopular structural reforms will be tougher to implement, including FDI in multi-brand retail, the Land Acquisition Bill, the Lokpal Bill, as well as pension and insurance reforms.[PAGE BREAK]

The results will have a bearing on the leadership of the Congress, and on the overall political dynamics leading up to the General Elections of 2014. Rahul Gandhi’s leadership will be negatively affected by the election results. All these could lead to stormy Parliamentary sessions and difficulties in getting legislations enacted. However, the stability of the UPA government does not face any immediate threat, with the outside support of the SP likely to continue.

Another fear is that this debacle might force the Congress to change gears and dole out a populist budget. The government might want to send out feelers to the voters (ahead of the 2014 General Elections). However, this act will have an adverse effect on the exchequer, which is already reeling under subsidy pressure.

The Questions Looming Large

Looking at the overall results, one can easily state that they were anti-Congress and not anti-corruption, as stated by many. Had that been the case, the BJP-SAD combine would have not have won so convincingly. Now, the Congress party stands to face many questions, the prominent of which have been listed below: 

What Happens To Rahul Gandhi?

Had the Congress performed better in these elections, voices would have emerged within the party for Gandhi to take on a national post (most probably that of Prime Minister). However, now that the results are out in the open, his leadership credentials would be questioned. Despite a sustained and aggressive campaign, the party could not perform any better and lost even in its strongholds such as Rai Bareilly and Amethi. So, how capable Rahul Gandhi is to lead the national party would be a big question mark and some party loyalists may be prompted to gun for Priyanka Gandhi.

Road To 2014

Another cause for worry for the Congress party is the upcoming General Elections. The party has lost a significant vote bank in crucial states such as Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, and regaining the lost ground would be a tough ask. Besides weakening the chances of the Congress party, this would also create a severe dent in the confidence of the UPA allies.

Re-emergence Of The Third Front

The strong showing by the SP would provide for a non-BJP, non-Congress platform, and would polarise those such as the Left Front and various non-aligned parties.

The Anna Factor

Another question that needs to be answered is whether the Anna factor played its part in the elections. Following the way in which Anna Hazare polarised people against corruption and created awareness amongst the youth, some are forced to argue that the apathy that the Congress showed toward him did sink the Titanic for the party.

However it could be staunchly stated that the vote was one for good governance. The SP campaigned on a platform of good governance and providing the basics of power, roads and water, and appears to have been successful. We view the clear result as a positive for the large state of UP to have a change of government under a young leader with the promise of good governance. In general, states with good governance have been rewarded, while the electorates’ anti-incumbency has hurt those which were found lagging in that regard. Punjab might be an exception, though the damage control done by Sukhbir Singh Badal did play the trick in Akali’s favour.