Friday the 13th: Gap-Down Opening Likely for Indian Markets as Israel-Iran Tensions Flare, Crude Jumps While CPI Eases

DIIs not only absorbed the selling pressure but also recorded their highest single-day buying figure for the month of June so far.

Often viewed as an unlucky day in Western folklore, Friday the 13th seems to be living up to its reputation—at least for Indian equity markets. As of 7:57 AM, GIFT Nifty is signaling a weak start, down 220 points or 0.88 per cent, at 24,705.

Weak Global Cues to Drag Markets Lower

Indian markets are likely to open sharply lower, mirroring the global risk-off sentiment. Dow Futures have dropped nearly 600 points, while Asian markets are firmly in the red following reports of an Israeli military strike on Iran. The escalation in geopolitical tensions has unnerved investors worldwide.

Domestic Macro Data Offers Some Respite

On the brighter side, India’s consumer inflation data provided some relief. CPI inflation for May 2025 eased to 2.82 per cent, continuing its downward trajectory and hitting a multi-year low. However, this positive development is being overshadowed by the sharp spike in crude oil prices, which surged over 5 per cent in response to the Middle East tensions—posing a fresh concern for India’s import-heavy economy.

Institutional Activity: DIIs Provide Support

On Wednesday, June 12, 2025, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained active buyers, recording net purchases of Rs 9,393.85 crore.

FIIs vs DIIs – June 12 Snapshot

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), however, turned net sellers on the same day, pulling out Rs 3,831.42 crore from Indian equities. On the other hand, DIIs not only absorbed the selling pressure but also recorded their highest single-day buying figure for the month of June so far.

Thursday Market Recap – Broad-Based Sell-Off

Thursday was a rough session for Indian markets. Both the Nifty and Sensex ended with losses of around 1 per cent. The broader markets were hit harder—Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices declined by 1.60 per cent and 1.78 per cent, respectively. Every sectoral index closed in the red, reflecting a broad-based sell-off.

Wall Street Ends in Green

Meanwhile, U.S. markets managed to end higher on Thursday, supported by cooling inflation and optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations. The S&P 500 added 23.02 points to close at 6,045.26, the Dow Jones rose by 101.85 points to 42,967.62, and the Nasdaq gained 46.61 points to end at 19,662.48.

Outlook

With the Israel-Iran conflict rattling global sentiment and crude oil surging, Indian equities are bracing for a rough start. While easing inflation is a positive takeaway, it may not be enough to counter the pressure from global headwinds. Expect heightened volatility as the session unfolds.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.