ஏ்ஐ பங்குகளுக்கான யதார்த்த நிலை: தொழில்நுட்ப முதலீடுகளை மறுபரிசீலனை செய்ய வேண்டிய நேரமா?

For the past 18 months, global equity markets have been absorbed by a single story: the astonishing acceleration of artificial intelligence and the extraordinary rise of U.S. mega-cap AI stocks. Globally, investors are treating AI as the defining breakthrough of our time—a force that will reshape industries and challenge every assumption about productivity and competitiveness. This narrative has manifested in an unprecedented concentration of market power: the “Magnificent 7” (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla) now collectively account for approximately 36 per cent of the S&P 500’s total market capitalisation—one of the highest levels of index concentration in the benchmark’s history, surpassing even the peak of the dot-com era when the top 10 stocks briefly reached 33 per cent in early 2000.

This 36 per cent weighting (up from 20 per cent at the start of 2023 and just 10 per cent a decade ago) means that roughly one out of every three dollars invested in the S&P 500 is now tied to just seven companies, almost all of which are directly or indirectly positioned as leaders in the AI revolution.

Against this backdrop, India has appeared steady and almost uneventful. Our markets have delivered returns, but without the frenzy or glamour that surrounds Silicon Valley. Many outside observers view India as peripheral to the AI revolution, relevant perhaps as a supplier of talent, but not as a leader in the value chain. Yet, if one studies the last 4 decades of technological progress, a different story emerges. Every major technological shift has followed a familiar pattern: a burst of innovation at the frontiers followed by mass adoption, adaptation and commercial-scale implementation. And whenever the world has transitioned from invention to implementation, India has emerged as a central force.

This is the contrarian view missing in the current AI excitement. But it may also be the most powerful opportunity shaping up for long-term investment.

Every Wave of Technology Has Been Disruptive, but Not in the Way Initially Expected.  

We have seen this before.

The personal computer revolution promised to transform every home and business. But the true global economic impact came not from the design of the first PCs, but from how enterprises integrated computing into their workflows - an area where India began its journey into global IT services.

Then came the internet revolution, with early predictions focused on search engines and dot-com ideas. The deeper value creation, however, came from the ability to build and manage digital systems at scale, something India excelled at through outsourced engineering, backend platforms and enterprise applications.

The mobile revolution was expected to be all about hardware. Instead, India became one of the largest markets for mobile-driven business models, payments, commerce and public infrastructure. UPI did not invent mobile payments, but it demonstrated the world’s most scalable version of it. The cloud revolution was dominated by American hyperscalers. Yet the most widespread commercial applications of cloud technologies were built and maintained by Indian engineers, Indian IT firms, Indian SaaS companies and global capability centres operating out of India.

And now we stand at the beginning of the AI revolution. This time, the shift is even more radical. AI represents the “democratisation of intelligence”- where intelligence itself becomes a utility. Just as cloud gave us computing on tap, AI gives us intelligence on tap: the ability for individuals and enterprises to access reasoning, insight and automation at near-zero marginal cost.

This is the most profound technological equaliser since the internet. And it sets the stage for India’s next leap.

When the Euphoria Settles, Execution Shapes the Winners

The marketplace today is pricing AI perfection - assuming flawless adoption, limitless demand and execution without friction. But history tells us that the frontier of innovation always cools, valuations normalise and the real economic value shifts from invention to execution.

As global enterprises move from AI experimentation to AI integration, the core question becomes: who can deploy AI widely, cheaply and at operational scale?

This is precisely where India becomes irreplaceable.

India’s Pattern: Not Inventing Every Technology, but Scaling It Better Than Anyone

The Indian IT sector has weathered every major technology disruption over the past three decades—from the dot-com crash and global financial crisis to the COVID shock and now the explosive rise of generative AI. Each time, the industry has faced sharp growth slowdowns, margin compression and client caution, yet it has consistently emerged stronger by reinventing its service portfolio, rapidly building new digital and cloud capabilities and earning even deeper trust from Global 2000 clients. The track record is clear: Indian IT has repeatedly recovered from drawdowns of 50–80 per cent in market value (2000–2003, 2008–2009, 2022–2023) and gone on to deliver multi-year compounding growth.

Using Infosys as the bellwether for the Indian IT sector, the chart and table below illustrate the industry’s proven ability to stage powerful recoveries after every major drawdown over the past three decades.

Today, as enterprises worldwide accelerate their transition into the era of artificial intelligence, agentic automation, cloud-native architectures and data-driven decision making, the Indian IT sector is once again experiencing a cyclical reset—slower discretionary spending, elongated sales cycles and heightened scrutiny on ROI. But history shows that these are precisely the moments when Indian IT retools and captures the next wave. Just as the industry rode Y2K (Year 2000), global outsourcing, cloud migration and digital transformation to leadership, it is now aggressively positioning itself as the preferred partner for building AI-first digital infrastructure at scale.

Backed by the world’s deepest bench of engineering talent, proven global delivery excellence and an unmatched cost-value equation, Indian IT companies are investing heavily in AI platforms, proprietary accelerators and thousands of GenAI-trained consultants. As global enterprises commit trillions to AI modernisation over the coming decade, the Indian IT sector is uniquely placed to move from survival mode to becoming the backbone of this transformation. If the past three decades are any guide, the Indian IT sector will not merely endure this shift; it will adapt, dominate the value chain and emerge significantly stronger on the other side.

The Next AI Wave Will Be Indian in Its Outcomes

India may not build the largest foundational models or dominate AI hardware manufacturing. That is not necessary. Where India will lead is in enterprise adoption - the most valuable and scalable phase of any technological cycle. Indian enterprises and technology firms are uniquely positioned to:

·       Integrate AI into banking, insurance, healthcare, retail and manufacturing

·       Build AI toolkits tailored for operational efficiency

·       Offer AI transformation at 1/3rd the global cost

·       Train millions of workers to incorporate AI into daily workflows

·       Export AI-driven solutions globally through IT services, GCCs and SaaS platforms

AI is the first technology where India’s demographic strengths, digital public infrastructure, engineering talent and cost advantage converge almost perfectly. Implementation is where the next decade of value creation lies - and implementation has always been India’s competitive edge.

What This Means for Investors

For those who can look beyond short-term narratives, the opportunity becomes clear. Indian IT services companies are already repositioning themselves as AI transformation partners. Mid-tier IT firms, engineering design players and analytics companies may become the unexpected beneficiaries of enterprise AI rollouts.

Indian SaaS companies are building AI-first products for global markets, competing not on hype but on practicality and cost-efficiency. Sectors such as data infrastructure, cloud acceleration, security, automation and enterprise tooling are likely to see sustained demand. Large Indian conglomerates in BFSI, retail and manufacturing will leverage AI to improve productivity, streamline processes and expand digital ecosystems - creating new competitive advantages.

These are not the headline-grabbing companies today. But they may well be the compounding engines of the next decade.

The Contrarian Truth

The greatest beneficiaries of the AI era may not be those building the most expensive models. They may be the nations and enterprises that deploy AI across the widest canvas. And India is the world’s largest canvas.

When the AI hype cycle settles and the world shifts from fascination to functionality, India’s moment will arrive-just as it did with PCs, the internet, mobile and cloud.

This is not a prediction. This is a pattern.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.