A Quick Analysis Of Third Quarter Results

Indian market witnessed volatile situation after touching its all time high of 8,996 on March 3, 2015. Ever since the Nifty has been witnessing a high level of volatility, with a tendency to slide down in sync with the global cues. While during Union budget presentation by Indian finance minister, Arun Jaitley, markets touched a new 52 week low at around 6800 level, overall recent quarterly results for the sectors are muted. Here, we are coming up with the third quarter fundamental analysis along with index major stocks specific technical analysis.

India’s automotive industry is one of the most competitive in the world. It accounts for 7.1 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 20 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a growth of 7.48 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit and net profit in Q3FY16 increased by 5.41 per cent and 8.40 per cent compared to same period last year. The largest company in Automobile sector Tata Motors whose revenue is around 58 per cent of total revenue of industry increased by 2.91 per cent in terms of revenue and a decrease in net profit by 14.24 per cent YoY.

After a year that saw a revival in some segments, the automobile industry will be looking ahead to more broad-based and sustainable growth in 2016. The year can also see the industry scrambling to adjust its strategies to comply with new regulations some of which are already started.

The stock of Tata Motors DVR looking positive. The stock has been in an intermediate uptrend after registering swing low around levels of Rs 210.The stock took support around its 52-week low of Rs 201 in the month of September, 2015 and in this process the stock formed  multiples lows in the range of Rs 201-Rs 210. The stock has not managed closed below the its vital support level of Rs 200 on the weekly time frame. Which indicates that the bottom is in place now and the stock is likely to move northwards.

The stock of TVS Motors LTD looking bearish in the 1 year daily chart. After recorded 52-week  high at Rs 309 the stock did not managed to hold the technical level of Rs 300 since November 30,2015. On march 23,2016 the stock broke its vital supports of Rs 275 which is 100-day EMA and Rs 270 is 200 day EMA by forming “Bearish Engulfing” pattern which is indicating negative move ahead.       

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 33 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a decline of 9.38 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit declined by 27.48 per cent and the industry witnessed a decline of 23.38 in Q3FY16 compared to the same period last year. The largest company in the sector Hindustan Zinc whose revenue is around 70.13 per cent of total revenue of industry declined by 11 per cent in terms of revenue and it witnessed decrease in net profit by 23.87 per cent YoY.

The stock of Tata Steel consolidates in the wide range around Rs 210 to Rs 250. In the current scenario the stock is sustaining above the technical level of Rs 244 which is 15-day EMA and Rs 245 which is 20-day EMA level. On the lower side stock has multiples lows around the technical level of Rs 200-Rs 210. However each and every time its bounce from this area indicating vital support at these levels.   

The stock of Jindal Steel and Power LTD forming “bearish channel” in 3 year weekly as well as daily charts. The stock recently made its 52-week low at Rs 48.20 as on February 12,2016. Since last 3 years the stock has been sustaining below its 200-day EMA level. By calculating the all the stock of Jindal Steel may see more downfalls ahead.
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IT

The contribution of the IT sector to India’s GDP stood at 9.5 per cent in FY2015. While 2015 saw technologies such as social, mobility, big data analytics, cloud services, connected devices and machine learning coming together to disrupt the way business was being done, 2016 can see a majority of these ideas becoming a reality.

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 150 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a growth of 0.53 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to Q2FY16. The operating profit in Q3FY16 increased by 0.57 per cent and net profit witnessed a decrease of 20.51 per cent quarter on quarter (QoQ). The largest company in IT sector Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) whose revenue is around 32.5 per cent of total revenue of industry decreased by 0.07 per cent in terms of revenue and a increased in net profit by 4.53 per cent QoQ. 

Ever since recording an all-time low at Rs 932 in July 10, 2015, the stock of Infosys LTD has been sustaining above the technical level of Rs 1000 in 1 year daily chart, indicating vital support around this level. In the current scenario, the stock has moving sideways broadly in the range between Rs 1070- Rs 1140. The stock taking immediate support of the technical level of Rs 1113 which is 50 day EAM level and 1104 which is 100 day EMA level. By calculating all, the stock may see bullish move after close above Rs 1150 level.

In recent times the stock of Wipro trading around its crucial support level of Rs 516 which is its 200-day EMA level. The stock has formed “Bearish Engulfing” pattern after broke its 100 day EMA level which was at Rs 551, indicating more negative move ahead. 

Capital Goods

Capital goods sector is the base of many industries and thus is an essential component of manufacturing. With a total market size of USD 92 billion and production valued at USD 32 billion, Capital Goods sector today, contributes to 12 per cent of India’s manufacturing output and 1.8 per cent to GDP. The capital goods industry employs 1.4 million of people and is estimated to employ 2.8 million by 2017.

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 117 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a growth of 7.12 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit increased by 4.61 per cent and the industry witnessed a profit of Rs 161 crores compared to the loss of Rs 637 crores in Q3FY16 compared to same period last year. The largest company in the sector Larsen and Toubro whose revenue is around 46 per cent of total revenue of industry increased by 8.31 per cent in terms of revenue and it witnessed increase in net profit by 23.61 per cent YoY.

Havells the stock witnessed multiples lows in the range of Rs 240- Rs 250 levels. In 3 years weekly charts the stock is sustain above the technical level of Rs 257 which is its 100-day EMA level. Indicating vital support around the lower levels. On higher side if the stock closed above its major hurdle of Rs 310 may see new 52 week high. Indicating that, the stock may see some positive moves for short-medium term prospective.    

The stock of Mahindra CIE Automobile LTD fall with no respite after witnessed breakdown from the technical level of Rs 245 which was its 200 day EMA in 1 year daily chart. Actually the stock is forming “lower bottoms lower tops” pattern and made 52 week low at Rs 156 on March 1, 2016. By calculating the all the stock of Mahindra CIE auto may see more bearish move ahead.
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Pharma

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 140 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a growth of 14 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit increased by 50.66 per cent and the industry witnessed a profit of Rs 3737 crores in Q3FY16 compared to the loss of Rs 1229 crores same period last year. The largest company in the sector Lupin whose revenue is around 8.87 per cent of total revenue of industry increased by 24.17 per cent in terms of revenue and it witnessed increase in net profit by 49.31 per cent YoY.

The stock of Sun Pharma Looking positive as it is forming “Higher Tops Higher Bottoms” pattern from their recent 52-week low which was around Rs 706. On the lower level the stock has took vital support at the technical level of Rs 700 which is its 200-day EMA level. If the stock of Sun pharma continue with current scenario may see more bullish move ahead. 

The stock of Wockhard Pharma tanked after broke the technical level of Rs 1228 and made 52-week low at Rs 706 on February 12,2016. Actually its formed “Lower Bottom Lower Top” pattern in 3 years weekly chart. On the each & every bounce the stock witnessed major sell-off. Which is indicating negative moves for some medium-long term prospective.

Oil & Gas

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 21 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a decline of 6.32 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit increased by 6 per cent and the industry witnessed a decline of 51.94 in Q3FY16 compared to the same period last year. The largest company in the sector Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) whose revenue is around 49.75 per cent of total revenue of industry declined by 2.25 per cent in terms of revenue and it witnessed decrease in net profit by 64 per cent YoY.

The stock of Indraprastha Gas LTD has been forming “upward Rising channel” in 3 year weekly chart. The stock also managed to sustain above the technical level Rs 480 which is its 50-day EMA level. Indicating that, stock has vital support on lower level. If it’s continues with the current scenario may see more uptrend ahead.

The stock of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd forming “ Downward sloping channel” in 3 year weekly chart. Since July 2015 the stock sustain below its 200-day EMA which was at Rs 294 level. Recently the stock made its 52-week low at Rs 188 as on February 12,2016. By calculating the all, the stock of ONGC is not looking prospective ahead.
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FMCG

India’s consumer confidence continues to be the highest globally in the third quarter of calendar year 2015 (Q3), riding on a positive economic environment and low inflation.

The growing purchasing power and rising influence of the social media have enabled Indian consumers to splurge on good things.

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 95 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a growth of 6.29 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit increased by 0.90 per cent and net profit decreased by 24.47 per cent in Q3FY16 compared to same period last year. The largest company in the sector Hindustan Unilever whose revenue is around 22 per cent of total revenue of industry increased by 2.66 per cent in terms of revenue and net profit decreased by 22.44 per cent YoY.

The stock Hindustan Unilever Ltd consolidates in the wide range of Rs 780- Rs 850. Since May 2014 the stock has been sustaining above the technical level of Rs 785 which is its 100-day EMA and Rs 711 which is its 200-day EMA level. After looking on 1 year daily chart the stock is forming “Higher Tops Higher Bottoms” formation which is indicating positive move ahead.

United Spirits the stock witnessed heavy fall after broke the technical level of 3055 which was its 200-day EMA level. Actually it’s formed “Bearish Engulfing” pattern on the same level. RSI indicator is also not looking promising. Overall, the stock of united spirits may see more negative moves in short-medium term scenario.

Telecom

India is currently the world’s second-largest telecommunications market and has registered strong growth in the past decade and half.

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 12 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a growth of 1.94 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to Q2FY16. The operating profit in Q3FY16 increased by 2.27 per cent QoQ. Net profit witnessed a loss of 657 crores this quarter compared to profit of Rs 522 crores in Q2FY16. The largest company in telecom sector Bharti Airtel whose revenue is around 51 per cent of total revenue of industry increased by 1.62 per cent in terms of revenue and a net profit decreased by 23 per cent QoQ.

The year 2016 will witness big consolidation and data usage explosion events that the country’s telecom industry is awaiting for the past five years making it one of biggest years for the sector.

On Mobile the stock has been forming “Upward Rising Channel” in 3 years weekly chart. On the lower side the stock took vital supports around the technical level of Rs 98 which is its 50-day EMA level and Rs 81 which is its 100-day EMA level. RSI indicator is also looking positive. By calculating the all, the stock of On Mobile looking positive for short-medium term prospective.     

Rcom the stock nosedives after broke the technical level of Rs 68.59 which is its 200-day EMA level in 1 year daily chart. Actually the stock has been forming “Lower Bottoms Lower Tops” in 3 year weekly chart. In the present scenario the stock is hovering around its 52-week low which was at Rs 48. By calculating the all the stock of Rcom may see more negative moves.

Infrastructure sector is a key driver for the Indian economy. The year ahead holds promise for infrastructure as the centre pushes reforms aimed at giving faster approvals to stalled projects, providing easy access to funds and attracting overseas investors.

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 56 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a growth of 0.10 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit decreased by 21.19 per cent and the industry witnessed a loss of Rs 133 crores compared to the profit of Rs 341 crores in Q3FY16 compared to same period last year. The largest company in the sector Larsen and Toubro whose revenue is around 46 per cent of total revenue of industry decreased by 1.47 per cent in terms of revenue and it witnessed a net loss of 84 lakhs compared to profit of 20 lakh same period last year

Real Estate:

To look into the details of the industry we have analysed around 65 companies from the sector. The sector witnessed a decline of 2.90 per cent in Q3FY16 as compared to same period last year. The operating profit declined by 32.15 per cent and the industry witnessed a decline of 45.26 in Q3FY16 compared to the same period last year. The largest company in the sector National Buildings Construction Corporation (NBCC) whose revenue is around 17.74 per cent of total revenue of industry increased by 28.88 per cent in terms of revenue and it witnessed increase in net profit by 17.33 per cent YoY.

The stock of IRB Infrastructure LTD is consolidating in the wide range of Rs 200-Rs 240 levels. Since April 2014 the stock hold its technical level of 200-day EMA, at Rs 111. In the current scenario the stock made multiple low around its 100-day EMA level, which indicating vital support around Rs 215.  The RSI indicator is also looking promising. Over all short-medium  term prospective the stock may see some positive moves.       

DLF the stock formed “bearish Engulfing” pattern after its broke the technical level of Rs 160, which is also 200-day EMA level. Since September 2015 the stock has been forming “Lower Bottom Lower Tops” in 3 year weekly chart. On the recent basis the stock made 52-week low at Rs 72.50 on February 12,2016. Over all the stock is not looking promising for medium-long term prospective.