DSIJ Mindshare

Market sentiments look bright and strong

Finally we have a clear sky above our head and I am not talking about the slow changes of season. The context is all the decade long controversies over GST Bill. Now it has gained enough teeth and nails to be the first such unified tax regime in India. I am happy to note that political parties beyond their ideologies agreed to the Bill and let it get cleared in the Rajya Sabha. 

This edition of your favourite investment fortnightly is dedicated to the causes of mainly, mutual funds and all the happening in the IPO segment. We have cover reportage on Balanced Funds, the most happening segment in Mutual Fund industry at this time. 

With investors who do not have either inclination, time, skill or know how to build their own portfolios,mutual fund surely is the most advisable mode to participate in equity markets. For investors with greater insight and experience, direct equity investing can lead to higher returns. Even direct equity portfolios should be constructed keeping long term time frame in view. In direct investing, portfolio reviewing is equally important and we would recommend that every investor should review the portfolio every quarter. 

So our advise is that market is going to do very well in the coming three to four years. We also feel in due course of time people will increasingly invest through mutual funds. Immediately in short run we do not see any triggers for the markets except that earnings may surprise us on the upside in the coming quarters. Also comments from SBI on the credit growth indicating improvement in the credit off-take can support the market sentiment. There is a visible improvement in the infrastructure space and as a result, cement stocks have gained traction with several cement companies posting good earnings. Big infrastructure projects are getting green signal and as a result, with increasing demand from infrastructure space, the cement sector is doing well. You can keep a watch on the cement stocks for the time being at least.

Current liquidity driven rally may get support from the expected earnings upgrade in coming quarter i.e September quarter. We expect September results to be better than the June quarter results. On the interest rate front the WPI level is not a good news. The WPI numbers came higher due to contribution from increasing vegetable prices and dal prices. We expect the WPI numbers to cool down in coming month.

It will be interesting to see the new governor's stance on monetary policy. Even if the newly appointed governor adopts an aggressive stance , chances of him or her cutting the interest rates in initial tenure are low, hence market may not expect an interest rate cut.

We expect the liquidity driven rally to continue and India will continue to attract foreign portfolio investments. Indian markets have gained almost 7 per cent on YTD basis. The markets may gain momentum in the send half of the year and deliver superior returns. We believe that Sensex can touch 30000 atleast before year end or at worst before March 2017.

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