NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

During the truncated week, Nifty closed the week almost near about the lows touched on the day of Trump’s victory. The market ended at six-month closing low and recorded losses for four consecutive weeks. The macroeconomic data released during the week showed some positive signs, viz. WPI inflation had eased to 3.39 per cent and the CPI had eased to 14-month low of 4.20 per cent. However, the liquidity crunch in the economy due to demonetisation and increased chances of rate hike by US Fed in December took its toll on the stock market. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a long bearish candle. Nifty has witnessed fourth successive week of correction. Now, going forward, traders will keep an eye on the level of 7900 as its 50 per cent retracement level of 6825 to 8968. A decisive close below the level of 7900 will open up for correction up to levels of 7600 in the medium term as it is about 61.8 per cent retracement level of move from 6825 to 8968 levels. On the upside, the zone of 8200-8250 may act as a stiff resistance for the Nifty. A decisive move above levels of 8200-8250 may open up for upside up to levels of 8460. On the weekly scale the RSI is quoting around 39 levels.


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Nifty, after showing sharp decline during early part of this week, shifted into sideways consolidation on Thursday and Friday trading session. After break down from ‘Head & Shoulder pattern” around levels of 8480-8500, Nifty almost achieved the target of Head which was almost 400-450 points as it registered low of 8002. Now, going forward, Nifty is placed around its crucial support zone which is pegged in the range of 7890-8000. The level of 7900 is 50 per cent retracement level of entire upmove from the Feb low of 6825 to Sept high of 8968.70. Also, Nifty has formed narrow bodies candlestick pattern around its recent swing low of 8002 and the Daily RSI has entered into the oversold territory and presently it is around the level of 26 which indicates that a pullback is in offing. On the upside, the zone of 8200-8250 will act as a major resistance for the Nifty in the short term. A decisive move above this zone is likely to open gates for upmove up to levels of 8400-8500.

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The stock ICICI Bank is currently trading at Rs.259. Its 52 week high/low stand at Rs.298/ Rs.181, made as on November 10, 2016 and February 26, 2016. From April 2016's first week, the stock witnessed a breakout from its resistance level of Rs.250, and there after it went on to hit its 52-week high on recent basis. The stock formed “Higher Tops Higher Bottom” pattern within 1 year daily chart. Currently the stock is hovering around its level of Rs.260 and Rs.254 which are its 100-day and 200-day EMA levels respectively. The stock has been trading in ‘ upward rising’ channel pattern since the beginning of May 2016 and at present its indicating vital supports in the range of Rs.247-Rs.245. As per above parameters, the stock of ICICI Bank may take vital support around these respective levels. By calculating all, we recommend buy in ICICI Bank in the range of Rs.263 to Rs.265 levels with a target of Rs.285 followed by Rs.299 and a stop loss of Rs.245. 





The stock of BPCL is currently trading at Rs.633 level. Its 52 week high and low stands at Rs.694/ Rs.366 made on October 18, 2016 and February 23, 2016. From last six months the stock of BPCL has been managing to sustain above the technical levels of Rs.603 which is its 100-day EMA and Rs.556 which is its 200-day EMA level. Recently the scrip also formed 'DOJI' candle, which is indicating reversal of current downtrend. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI quoting at 33-34 indicates some more strength. Looking at the current momentum the stock may again cross 52-week high. By taking into consideration all the parameters, we recommend buy in BPCL from Rs.633 level with a TGT of Rs.677 and Rs.699 and a stop loss of Rs.590.