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Reforms To Drive The Markets

| 10/18/2012 9:00 PM Thursday

The stock market always discounts the future, and those who are able to ascertain it correctly always stay ahead of the crowd. Regular readers of Dalal Street Investment Journal would certainly vouch for this fact. We, at Dalal Street Investment Journal, have consistently been guiding our readers in the right direction at all times – good or bad. The Indian economy was facing serious headwinds, as growth slowed down to 5.5 per cent or even less for the last two quarters over and above the subdued growth rate of 6.5 per cent that it had clocked in 2011-12. India’s saving and investment rate had also slipped since 2008-09. With a falling savings and investment rate, rise in twin deficits, inflation and a potential slowdown in growth, the overall scenario was quite negative.

The Centre’s fiscal deficit had slipped during 2011-12 to 5.8 per cent against the budgeted 4.6 per cent for the year and 4.9 per cent in 2010-11. With the gross under-recoveries of oil marketing companies working out to over Rs 1.8 trillion or 0.8 per cent of the GDP due to the unrevised prices of diesel, LPG and kerosene, this was expected. In fact, following this macro-economic deterioration, some international credit rating agencies had put India’s sovereign rating on their watchlist for an impending downgrade that would have pushed India to a sub-investment grade.

Despite all the negatives, however, we were looking at the bigger picture and had predicted the upsurge in the markets way ahead of others. Not many would have agreed with our stance at that point, when we had predicted that the markets are expected to move upwards despite the turbulent global scenario and a difficult domestic environment. Sure enough, no one managed to predict the market as precisely as we did. We had stated that the reforms process will continue, which will bring back cheer to the markets. What followed is history.

 

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