Nifty Meanders Aimlessly
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NSE Nifty:The NSE Nifty has once again moved along the expected lines. It has neither gone below the 5638 level nor gone above the 5829 level, which in effect means that virtually the whole of October has gone in a corrective phase with no directional bias. In fact, the aforesaid trading range has tightened even further to 5638-5725, making it a rather dull and listless market while there hasn’t been a shortage of scrip-specific action. Needless to say, such a squeezed market would be followed by a sharp thrust which is dependant on a few event risks. In terms of levels, a breach (read: a close below) of 5638 could mean a downside, while a close above 5725 followed by the 5829 level could mean a sharp upside.
Mid-Caps and Small-Caps too have remained corrective (read: range-bound) but the weakness is slightly more pronounced in the Mid-Caps than in the Small-Caps. Banks remain corrective but still positive and Capital Goods are also in a similar situation (positively corrective). Consumer Durables have finally declined. FMCG has posted a fresh all-time high but has come off a bit, while Healthcare has continued to remain positively corrective and IT is a bit oversold. Metals have remained a weak spot and Realty too has been weak this time around.
The Nifty has remained docile within a tight range, waiting for a trigger – a breakout on either side could determine the direction of its immediate future trend, while banks could play a make-or-break role.[PAGE BREAK]
A B Nuvo CMP - Rs 915.90 Buy
Aditya Birla Nuvo bottomed out by posting an intra-week low of Rs 330.25 during the week ended 13th March, 2009, and these levels have rarely been seen since. The scrip launched into an intermediate uptrend to peak at an intra-week high of Rs 627.65 during the week ended 29th April, 2009, but couldn’t sustain these levels for long, and declined to post an intra-week low of Rs 500 during the week ended 15th May, 2009. It commenced its uptrend from here, and rallied to peak at an intra-week high of Rs 1054 during the week ended 11th September, 2009.
Currently, Aditya Birla Nuvo seems set to stage an up-move after a decent weekly consolidation (180 weeks and counting). With even the monthly picture looking better, a further upside from these levels cannot be ruled out.
Trading Pointers:
| Indicators: MACD-Buy RMI-Buy Stochastic-Sell ROC-Buy RSI-Buy |
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| Support: 890, 730 | Resistance: 1044, 1176 |
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| Targets: 1st Target: 1316 (44-46 weeks) | 2nd Target: 1800 (52-54 weeks) |
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| BSE Code – 500303 | Stoploss: 730 (cls) |
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| 55 Week EMA: 849.50 |
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HEG CMP - Rs 229.85 Buy
HEG peaked at an intra-week high of Rs 119.75 during the week ended 2nd January, 2009, and declined to post an intra-week low of Rs 94 during the week ended 2nd April, 2009. The scrip launched into an intermediate uptrend, peaked at an intra-week high of Rs 205.70 during the week ended 12th June, 2009 only to enter a corrective phase, and declined to post an intra-week low of Rs 165 during the week ended 19th June, 2009. It staged a rally to peak at an intra-week high of Rs 412.70 during the week ended 8th January, 2010, and entered a corrective phase.
Currently, HEG has reversed direction after receiving significant support from the Rs 200 level. A monthly close above the Rs 257 level would mean the possibility of a further upside from here.
Trading Pointers:
| Indicators: MACD-Buy RMI-Buy Stochastic-Buy ROC-Buy RSI-Buy |
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| Support: 195, 166 | Resistance: 259, 294 |
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| Targets: 1st Target: 310 (44-46 weeks) | 2nd Target: 400 (52-54 weeks) |
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| BSE Code – 509631 | Stoploss: 190 (cls) |
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| 55 Week EMA: 214.06 |
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NTPC CMP - Rs 167.60 Buy
NTPC bottomed out by posting an intra-week low of Rs 113 during the week ended 31st October, 2008, commenced a short-term uptrend, and rallied to peak at an intra-week high of Rs 192.90 during the week ended 30th January, 2009. The scrip entered a corrective phase to actually bottom out by posting an intra-week low of Rs 167.30 during the week ended 20th March, 2009. It moved sideways before recovering to peak at an intra-week high of Rs 241.70 during the week ended 31st December, 2009, only to decline from here.
Trading Pointers:
Currently, NTPC seems to be on the verge of continuing its higher top, higher bottom formation on the monthly chart, indicating the possibility of a further upside from these levels.
Trading Pointers:
| Indicators: MACD-Buy RMI-Buy Stochastic-Sell ROC-Buy RSI-Buy |
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| Support: 165, 145 | Resistance: 184, 210 |
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| Targets: 1st Target: 208 (44-46 weeks) | 2nd Target: 222 (52-54 weeks) |
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| BSE Code – 532555 | Stoploss: 147 (cls) |
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| 55 Week EMA:167.12 |
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Reliance Industries CMP - Rs 811.20 Buy
Reliance Industries bottomed out by posting an intra-week low of Rs 465 during the week ended 31st October, 2008, took support at the Rs 500 (support) level, recovered smartly, and peaked by posting an intra-week high of Rs 750 during the week ended 7th November, 2008. The scrip declined from here, struggled a bit, finally overcame its recently-posted high, and entered a medium-term uptrend. It appreciated to peak at an intra-week high of Rs 1245 during the week ended 22nd May, 2009, and entered a corrective phase.
Currently, Reliance Industries could be commencing its long-term uptrend. With the oscillators looking positive, a further upside from these levels cannot be ruled out.
Trading Pointers:
| Indicators: MACD-Buy RMI-Buy Stochastic-Sell ROC-Sell RSI-Buy |
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| Support: 800, 743 | Resistance: 860, 939 |
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| Targets: 1st Target: 1011 (44-46 weeks) | 2nd Target: 1076 (52-54 weeks) |
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| BSE Code – 500325 | Stoploss: 711 (cls) |
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| 55 Week EMA: 794.49 |
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Sebi Disclosure: The author is an active market participant and could not only be having positions but could even be having contrary positions in the stocks mentioned above.