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Q4FY13 Results Likely To Remain Weak

| 4/4/2013 9:03 PM Thursday

Rajnish Kumar
CEO
Fullerton Securities & Wealth Advisors

  • POLITICAL PRESSURES - India has not been able to sustain its January momentum of FII flows because of political uncertainties clouding the investment climate. On the economic front, the government seems unable to deal with the mounting twin deficit.
  • SECTOR PICKIN - Sector specific choices are limited in the present scenario. The current global and domestic set-up favours sectors like IT and Pharma at this point in time.

On a YTD basis, India has widely underperformed other emerging markets with the Nifty giving negative returns of -3.61% while countries like Indonesia (+14.62%), Philippines (+18.91%), Thailand (+13.08%), and Turkey (+9.14%) have done quite well. A sharp drop in the period February - March 2013 wiped off the strong gains made in January 2013 over some serious efforts by the government at policy reforms.

India is currently in this state largely owing to its own vulnerabilities caused by the twin deficits – fiscal and current account. Other countries have gained from capital flowing out of a subdued Europe. Some like Indonesia and Philippines have also gained from the massive 17 per cent drop in the Yen over the last six months as they stand to gain from cheaper imports from Japan. Globally, barring Europe, other developed markets are likely to do well. Both China and US economies are looking much better and will support the global markets.

India has not been able to sustain its January momentum of FII flows because of political uncertainties clouding the investment climate. On the economic front, the government seems unable to deal with the mounting twin deficit. Inflation is expected to remain high with food inflation constantly moving up due to a supply demand mismatch. These factors have a cascading effect on the Indian rupee that is expected to depreciate against the US dollar going forward.

 

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