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Nifty In Consolidation Phase

| 4/18/2013 9:01 PM Thursday

The 50-share NSE Nifty has moved on expected lines. The market, after registering a high of 5755, peaked out around these levels. After registering this high, Nifty went into a short-term downtrend and retracted to the levels of 5470-5500. Around these levels, Nifty marked a short-term bottom by forming a double bottom. From these levels, the market bounced back strongly, while moving close ahead above the 5620 level is important. Despite a strong upward momentum, a technical setup is not favourable for the market. The market remains in the grip of bears as it is trading below its upward rising trendline.

Nifty has marked multiple resistances around the levels of 5970-5950, which are trend-changing levels. If the recoveries are sparse and the 5480 level seems unsustainable, then that would be a crucial support level. If Nifty doesn’t touch this level, its weekly chart would show a rising up trendline.

At the current level, the outlook looks positive as the buying seen on the bottom levels with good volumes has finally given a turn to the market sentiments. Also, the sharply positive advance-decline line is a mute witness to the current ongoing implosion.

After a strong rally, the broader market – Mid-Caps and Small-Caps – are consolidating and forming a base at the current levels. The Banking sector is helping the markets to shift gears and post gains owing to good buying around the support levels over positive news inflows. The Oil & Gas sector is in a mood to outperform the market and seems set to stage an up-move after a decent consolidation. Capital Goods remain in the bear phase and are witnessing a minor pullback from the oversold zone over a short covering. IT and Metals have seen a breakdown and they may continue to struggle at the higher levels. Healthcare and FMCG are steady and continue to support the market in its upward journey.

The Nifty has been witnessing a sharp recovery, and is not showing any signs of reversal. The index has seen a good consolidation in the range of 5500-5600. A closing above 5620 will give a breakout from this consolidation, and one can look for a pullback around 5730-5750 as an immediate level on the upside. On the downside, if the prices break below 5470, then one can expect the index to correct further till 5370-5350.

 

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