Nifty, Sensex Poised for Positive Start to H2 2025 as Fiscal Position Improves and IIP Shows Growth

At 7:18 AM, the GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,633, up 32 points from the previous close, suggesting a firm opening for the benchmark indices.

Pre-Market Update at 8:00 AM: On Tuesday, July 1, the Indian equity markets are set to begin the second half of calendar year 2025 on a positive note. At 7:18 AM, the GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,633, up 32 points from the previous close, suggesting a firm opening for the benchmark indices.

While Asian stocks opened mixed, a strong finish on Wall Street—where major U.S. indices closed at record highs—has contributed to an optimistic tone. Despite some profit booking on Monday, the Indian markets wrapped up June in the green, making it the fourth consecutive month of gains. Going forward, investors will closely track macroeconomic indicators such as the fiscal deficit and industrial output for further direction.

The central government’s fiscal deficit for April and May of FY26 stood at Rs 13,163 crore, which is just 0.8 per cent of the full-year target. In contrast, the same period last year recorded a much wider deficit of Rs 50,615 crore.

India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose by 1.2 per cent in May, the slowest rate in the past nine months, down from a 6.3 per cent increase in May 2024. However, April’s figure was revised up to 2.6 per cent, indicating slightly better momentum in the earlier month.

On June 30, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 831.50 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, infusing Rs 3,497.44 crore into the market.

Indian markets ended their four-day winning run on Monday as investors booked profits after a steep rally. Still, both indices ended the month higher. The Sensex declined 452.44 points (0.54 per cent) to 83,606.46, while the Nifty fell by 120.75 points (0.47 per cent) to 25,517.05. For June, the Sensex gained 2.65 per cent and the Nifty added 3.10 per cent.

Asian markets opened cautiously, with Japan’s indices slightly in the red as traders kept an eye on possible U.S. trade tariffs under President Trump’s administration.

Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion for the first time in over a year. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in June, up from 49.4 in May.

U.S. markets ended Monday’s session on a strong note, supported by hopes of a new trade deal and potential interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs. The Dow rose 275.50 points (0.63 per cent) to 44,094.77, the S&P 500 climbed 31.88 points (0.52 per cent) to 6,204.95, and the Nasdaq advanced 96.28 points (0.48 per cent) to 20,369.73.

For the quarter, the S&P 500 jumped 10.57 per cent, the Nasdaq surged 17.75 per cent, and the Dow rose 4.98 per cent.

In a positive development, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that a U.S.-India trade deal is nearing finalisation. President Trump is expected to share more details soon.

Crude oil prices saw a minor drop amid concerns of a potential OPEC output increase in August and fears of an economic slowdown due to possible U.S. tariff hikes. Brent crude traded 0.24 per cent lower at USD 67.61 a barrel, while WTI slipped 0.38 per cent to USD 64.86.

Gold prices edged higher as the U.S. dollar continued to weaken. Spot gold gained 0.3 per cent to USD 3,312.25 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level against the euro in nearly four years. The dollar index fell 0.35 per cent to 96.86, marking a six-month losing streak and its worst first-half showing since the 1970s.

For today, RBL Bank remain on the F&O ban list.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.