Megatrends: Shaping India’s Growth Story
This article is authored by Nimesh Chandan, CIO, Bajaj Finserv AMC
Market cycles oscillate between the trends of growth and inflation. But every so often, certain events or structural changes leave a lasting imprint, altering the course of these cycles and causing them to shift in unexpected ways. Megatrends are just that. They represent these deep-rooted changes—technological, demographic, or policy-driven—that fundamentally reshape economies, businesses, and consumer behaviour. Uncovering, identifying, and understanding these changes and discovering the investment opportunities they create is the core of what I call megatrend investing. This style of investing opens the door to new opportunities for those willing to see where the world is headed next.
From an investor perspective, recognising these trends is crucial as they play an integral role in designing resilient, forward-looking portfolios built for long-term growth. Times of market uncertainty often serve as the perfect backdrop, often revealing these hidden opportunities. This helps investors cut through the noise and focus on investment opportunities in companies with strong fundamentals and attractive valuations, especially those poised to ride the wave of emerging megatrends. The process of identifying these megatrends entails a well-rounded framework, one that combines both top-down and bottom-up approaches.
With this dynamic approach towards investing, investors can place megatrends at the heart of their portfolios, using them not just as themes but as strategic anchors for long-term growth. The concept of megatrends goes back around 40 years. Introduced by trend forecaster John Naisbitt, he famously said that the most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present. I find the approach to be simple yet profound; observe the present closely, and you’ll begin to see the future unfold. Today, that philosophy is more relevant than ever, especially when applied to India’s economic landscape.
With the world grappling with uncertainties of the ever-changing US tariff regime, several Indian sectors stand out as potential long-term growth drivers. Over the past decade, private consumption has nearly doubled, with the Private Final Consumption Expenditure contributing around 60 per cent to GDP (as per the Economic Survey 2024–25). As the fastest-growing major economy among its peers, India is on track to see consumer spending reach USD4.3 trillion by 2030. With a rapidly expanding consumer base, the sector is poised to be one of the most influential megatrends in shaping India's future.
We can expect a strong agricultural output as well, with the Indian Meteorological Department forecasting a favourable monsoon with rainfall 5 per cent above the historical average. Paired with declining rural inflation, we may see a significant revival in rural consumption. Another area that is silently seeing a megatrend unfold is the domestic-oriented sector of pharma and wellness. Due to a sedentary lifestyle, there has been a steady increase in the number of Indians suffering from chronic diseases. Diabetes and obesity have become a global concern, with developed countries leading in numbers, causing an astronomical rise in demand for obesity drugs.
An analysis by Bernstein Research suggests that the sales of these drugs will touch USD100 billion just in the US by 2030. However, as per a recent report by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, the US faces an active drug shortage of around 270 drugs. The Indian pharma industry is set to double down on this opportunity, acting not just as a market but as a potential manufacturer for these drugs, leveraging its strength in CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation). Post the World Sustainable Development Summit in March 2025, sustainability and resource optimisation have become central to policies and business strategies.
With rising demand for electric vehicles and cleaner energy solutions, these industries are becoming strategic focal points for investors. These are just a few trends investors must keep track of. The key to effective megatrend investing lies in selecting companies that are not only positioned to benefit from these shifts but also have the leadership, innovation, and capital to scale with them. Each reflects a broader transformation already underway, and together, they represent the megatrends that have the power to redefine the economic narrative.
By understanding the forces reshaping the economy and mapping them to actionable investment ideas, investors can future-proof their portfolios with a chance to act before the rest of the tide catches up with the flow.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are of the author and may not reflect the views of DSIJ