Muhurat Picks For Samvat 2078
On the Diwali previous to this one, the markets have rewarded investors wholeheartedly and more than what was expected. With a stellar performance after coming out of the woods, investors have high expectations from the markets and are all geared to cash in on any opportunity that the market can throw at them. However, the big question is whether there will be enough opportunities to accommodate the growing population of investors’ aspirations? Yogesh Supekar discusses the market outlook and shares a realistic perspective on the markets even as the DSIJ research team shares their top ‘muhurat’ picks for Samvat 2078
The period of CY2021 so far could be termed as a year of multibaggers where we have at least 843 number of stocks gaining by more than 100 per cent. The market when we entered 2021 was not cheap at all as the benchmark indices rallied by almost 15.45 per cent from the beginning of the year and were up by a whopping 73.50 per cent from their March 2021 lows. It was very difficult to predict a run up of over 25 per cent after the market gained by over 70 per cent from its March lows. Now when the market is already up by over 20 per cent in 2021, investors are rightfully cautious. There are multiple triggers for the market to halt its forward march and take stock of things before it embarks on its journey northwards.
We all know that at current valuations the market is priced to perfection and any amount of disappointment in earnings may lead to a steep correction. This is exactly what has happened in October 2021. Several so-called high-growth stocks have reported positive earnings but failed to meet investors’ growth expectations as priced in the valuations. Such failure to impress investors with super growth has led to a sharp correction in the stock prices of select IT stocks and stocks from the chemical sector. Both IT stocks and chemical stocks are extremely popular with investors as the stocks from these sectors have always promised superlative performance in terms of earnings growth.
The stocks from these two sectors have taken the maximum beating wherever the earnings have failed to meet the investors’ expectations, namely, TCS, Navin Flourine, Deepak Nitrate, SRF, Mastek, etc. With the lack of any positive trigger the market was hoping for the above estimated earnings from some of the most popular stocks belonging to the banking, IT, chemical and pharmaceutical sector to provide the fillip. With the earnings not being delivered, a steep correction followed. Now we are facing a market correction where earnings and only extraordinary earnings can help the market scale new highs in 2021, which unfortunately is a low probability event.
Review of Our Previous Diwali Portfolio
The DSIJ Diwali Portfolio of 2020 has outperformed BSE Sensex and BSE 500 once again with a flair. While Hero MotoCorp and Nucleus Software disappointed with their performance it was quality stocks like Dalmia Bharat, Prestige Estates Projects, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Relaxo Footwear and Tata Consumer Products that contributed the most to the healthy portfolio returns. Overall, the DSIJ Diwali portfolio managed to deliver ~81 per cent in one year when BSE Sensex clocked gains of 50 per cent BSE 500 57 per cent. The average holding period for the portfolio is 4.6 months and the returns generated is 31 per cent. This translates into 6.73 per cent returns in one month which is equal to ~81 per cent in one year.
Rs 10,00,000 Diwali Portfolio
The earnings this season has truly been a mixed bag performance. While several IT stocks reported positive numbers, the negative guidance on attrition has spooked investors and punctured the bullish momentum. Meanwhile, several mid-cap IT stocks such as Mindtree, Larsen and Toubro Infotech, Cyient and Persistent Systems have surprised investors on the positive side. One of the main reasons why the market is falling is because the FIIs are net sellers and they are selling big into the Indian markets. FIIs have not been comfortable with the valuations of Indian markets and recently we have several FIIs downgrading the Indian markets to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’, citing high valuations as the key reason. Nomura in its recent October report announced downgrading Indian equities from overweight to neutral in its regional allocations. While valuations could be a concern for institutional investors, the strong earning season may arrest the market downfall. Some companies such as Adani Green with six-fold jump in net profit YoY and Titan with three-fold jump in net profits owing to strong consumer demand suggest that the earnings’ trend is strong. The table below highlights those companies which have declared an outstanding set of results in the recent quarter.
Amongst the BSE Sensex stocks we saw impressive results (beating estimates) from ICICI Bank, Titan and RIL. The results were positive and in line with the estimates for HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Ultratech Cement, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Indusind Bank and NTPC. From the pack of BSE 100 index, we find that HDFC Life, Adani Enterprises and Lupin declared a negative set of results. From the mid-cap space we have LIC Housing and RBL Bank that declared a negative set of results while Supreme Industries, Federal Bank, Cummins India, Nippon Life, ABB India, TVS Motors and Jubilant Food are some of the mid-caps that declared an impressive set of results.
From the BSE Small-Cap index we have UTI AMC, Kuantum Papers, Gandhi Special Tubes, Raymond, Blue Star, Apcotex Industries, JSW Holdings, ESAB India, Transport Corporation of India (TCI), Schaeffler India, UCO Bank, GNFC and Tube Investments declaring impressive set of results. One of the key features of the earnings this season has been the pressure on margins. The increasing input costs have dented the net profit margins and the same is visible across sectors and companies. Even though the margin depression is compensated by rise in volume, the squeeze in margin poses risk to the profitability of the companies.
Indian Equity Market Outlook
The outlook for the Indian equities remains positive in the medium to long term as the fundamentals continue to improve with steady economic recovery. With the market down by almost 4 per cent from its recent highs, the valuations will start getting better. Another 5 or so per cent correction and suddenly we may have attractive valuations inviting investors. Deeper correction can be expected in the broader market space and hence large-cap should be the area to park the investible funds. The outperformance can come from commodities and precious metals if the volatility continues but the underperformance of equities could be temporary.
The market weakness may persist for little longer than this time; however, the velocity of market fall may be much softer in November if at all the market falls. The earnings have been strong and the global market conditions, especially those of the US and European markets, continue to be strong despite the unique challenges faced by the respective countries. The strength in the global markets and increased attractiveness post market correction can make some room for the equity prices to inch higher. As market timing is a tricky business, the effort by 1.2 per cent. As we are facing a rising inflationary environment along with a drop in the price of gold, one can expect some gains in gold prices by next Diwali. As equity valuations are high and volatility is on the rise in the equity markets, gold may look attractive to investors at this point in time.
The market weakness may persist for little longer than this time; however, the velocity of market fall may be much softer in November if at all the market falls. The earnings have been strong and the global market conditions, especially those of the US and European markets, continue to be strong despite the unique challenges faced by the respective countries. The strength in the global markets and increased attractiveness post market correction can make some room for the equity prices to inch higher. As market timing is a tricky business, the effort should be to realign the overall portfolio and may be readjust allocation to equity and other asset classes in order to stick to the original asset allocation plan. This will be useful especially for those investors who have gone overboard with equities in the overall portfolio allocation. Instead of exiting the equity market, rebalancing the portfolio and replacing the stocks based on the outlook for the company will be advisable.
Gold prices have slipped by close to 6 per cent from last year and have seen some outperformance in October. According to the latest report by World Gold Council, for every 1 per cent increase in inflation, gold demand in India increases by 2.6 per cent. The report further explains that the change in prices also has an impact on the demand for gold. While steady price increases or decreases affect long-term demand, sharp price changes have an impact on short-term demand. For each 1 per cent fall in the gold price in any given year, demand increases by 1.2 per cent. As we are facing a rising inflationary environment along with a drop in the price of gold, one can expect some gains in gold prices by next Diwali. As equity valuations are high and volatility is on the rise in the equity markets, gold may look attractive to investors at this point in time.
Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities
"We Could Have a Period of Sideways Move or Correction for the First Few Months of the New Samvat Year"
From this Diwali to next Diwali what is your outlook on the markets?
The macro numbers in India have started to show improvement and the international agencies have also lauded India’s resilience and prudence in these trying times. As stock markets discount the future, these positives have been largely discounted in the current valuations. In the process, emerging negatives like commodity price inflation, supply chain issues, reversal of monetary stimulus, increase in interest rates across the globe, damage to the asset quality of lenders and slow job creation has probably not got enough attention.
The initial Q2FY22 results also show some strain on margins due to commodity price inflation and on top-line due to supply chain issues. The hope again is that India will be least impacted by these due to lower dependence on external trade and external borrowings. Hence, we could have a period of sideways move or correction for the first few months of the new samvat year and later, once the corporate earnings start to shake off the ill-effects of the current negatives, our markets could resume the uptrend. However, at this stage predicting the extent of fall and the time period is a bit tricky.
Which sectors will you bet for outperformance at this point in time?
Sectorally, PSU still has steam left post the Air India decision and some progress on BPCL and SCI divestment. Banks (both PSU and private) could come back in the reckoning. Automobile and capital goods can also do well after a subdued performance over the past few quarters.
What are the key risks facing the market at this point of time?
As mentioned above, commodity price inflation, supply chain issues, reversal of monetary stimulus, increase in interest rates across the globe, damage to the asset quality of lenders and slow job creation are some of the risks faced by our markets at this point. Apart from this, if corporates are not able to show bounce-up in earnings in Q4FY22, the Nifty EPS for FY22 may come under pressure, thus impacting the valuation of the market.
What strategy should be adopted to beat the markets?
The importance of portfolio review, sectoral balancing and asset allocation rebalancing cannot be overemphasised. After such a rise in the market one does not know what triggers could ultimately take it down and for how long. It is prudent to book partial profits and restore the originally planned asset allocation. Raising some cash now, especially in stocks which have seen extraordinary rise since the lows of March 2020, may also be considered.
"Our models for the US suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target in 2022. If that is correct, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023."
The current rally even though backed by earnings growth and better-than-expected economic recovery hitherto was supported by liquidity. The moment FPIs start withdrawing from the Indian market a sizeable chunk of liquidity gets withdrawn. This sucking out of liquidity by a major market participant from the Indian markets can be a big issue. FPIs are clearly seen exiting from the markets in October even as DIIs have also booked some profits in the second half of October. While the DIIs (MFs) are sitting on cash, the IPO market is expected to attract a lot of institutional investors’ attention. The IPOs can be expected to compete for money and during such times when the market is in a consolidation mode, liquidity being diverted to IPOs may contribute to further profit booking in the secondary market.
The frontline indices are trading below the key near term moving average, indicating some weakness. Already the market participants are building a consensus of over 10 per cent correction from the top for the benchmark indices and over 15 per cent correction for the broader market indices. While the momentum investor and traders will suffer the most in the current market condition, the weakness in the market will be a boon for the long-term investors as an opportunity opens up for bargain hunting. As has been the trend, one can expect a change in leadership for the fresh bull run. The trick will be to identify the next sectoral leaders that may push the market higher.
The tendency is always to look at historical growth and identify those stocks that have done well in the recent past. However, what is more likely to reward investors is the next set of companies that are expected to deliver superior earnings’ growth on a consistent basis. What is comforting for long-term investors is the fact that corporate India is gung-ho about adding capacities and V-shaped demand recovery is expected to keep corporate India’s top-line healthy. The capex announcement by corporate India is an extremely positive factor for the industrial and building material sector as well as the capital goods sector.
A bull market is already brewing in these sectors, also aided by increase in spending by the government. Outperformance from the building material stocks, capital goods stocks and industrials is on the cards and investors should explore opportunities in this space. Overall, the bullish structure for the markets is intact and hence investors can use this correction not only to accumulate the high conviction ideas that already exist in the portfolio but also to shuffle and rebalance the portfolio to include new names that may provide leadership in the coming months to quarters. Globally, the US markets are seen trading at record highs on the back of strong earnings. The US Federal Reserve meeting on November 3 may set the tone for the market as the tapering announcement will indicate how and when the central bank will stop quantitative easing.
The global markets can be expected to outperform in the near term; however, the Indian markets may not underperform for long. The earnings season, even though mixed, has been strong. The government policy has been supportive of the markets. If there is any deeper meaningful correction it should be viewed as a buying opportunity. The festive season clearly is likely to speed dial economic recovery and this will indirectly contribute to the positive market sentiment. The expectation no doubt should remain muted even in the long term; it is the earnings, fundamentals and valuations that suggest strength for markets in the medium to long term.
Valuations are getting readjusted as markets correct downwards and it is only a matter of time that the valuations will start looking attractive on a forward basis. Strong earnings and fundamentals can be seen in quality stocks and mostly in the large-cap space. We may be heading into a period where the large-cap stocks are preferred over the mid-cap and small-cap stocks. If we look at the US market, the growth in earnings per share and revenue has taken market participants by surprise. Clearly the US market has not reacted enough to reflect the above average earnings’ growth and hence it could rally a bit more, scaling a new high in 2021.
One of the most important observations we can make at this point of time from the earnings in the US market is the fact that the rise in inflation is leading to revenue increase, which means that the companies are able to pass on the higher costs to the consumers. Thus, inflation does not look as scary as initially thought. What has been unnerving investors is the rise in Delta variant corona virus cases, inflation and tapering. Bulls are now sensing that inflation is not a big problem and can instead lead to revenue growth. Bulls also are betting on a drop in inflection and are discounting the possibility that tapering may not actually equal to tightening. The Indian market may benefit from bullish sentiment in the US markets for the remaining part of the CY2021.
Ashok Leyland Ltd.
CMP (Rs ): 142.70
BSE CODE: 532134
Face Value(Rs ) : 2
52 Wk High/Low : 103.70 /41.10
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 50,420.78
HERE IS WHY
✓ Market leader
✓ Healthy demand momentum
✓ Sectoral tailwinds.
Ashok Leyland, flagship of the Hinduja Group, is the secondlargest manufacturer of commercial vehicles in India, the fourth-largest manufacturer of buses in the world and the fourteenth-largest manufacturer of trucks. Headquartered in Chennai, its nine manufacturing plants give the company a robust international footprint. Ashok Leyland has a well-diversified portfolio across the automobile industry. Driven by innovative products suitable for a wide range of applications and an excellent understanding of the customers and local market conditions, the company has been at the forefront of the commercial vehicle industry for decades. With technology-enabled customer engagement processes and knowledge of the specific applications of the product range, Ashok Leyland is well-equipped to fulfill its customers’ needs.
In terms of annual consolidated performance, the company reported net sales and other operating income for Q1FY22 of Rs 4,087.89 crore, as compared to Rs 1,486.04 crore in Q1FY21. Operating profit more than doubled from Rs 147.92 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 352.67 crore in Q1FY22. The company reported a net loss of Rs 250.78 crore in Q1FY22. The company also said that it is working to improve export sales with its left-hand-drive portfolio in line with its ambition to be among the top 10 commercial vehicle makers globally. In terms of quarterly consolidated performance, the company reported net sales and other operating income for FY21 of Rs 19,454.10 crore as compared to Rs 21,951.27 crore in FY20.
Operating profit fell by 22.37 per cent from Rs 3,341.18 crore in FY20 to Rs 2,593.60 crore in FY21. The company reported a net loss of Rs 69.10 crore for FY21, relative to a net profit of Rs 456.91 crore in FY20. It sold 46,043 medium and heavy commercial vehicles in the domestic market (2,723 buses and 43,320 trucks including defence vehicles), registering de-growth of 35.5 per cent over the previous year. Light commercial vehicles (LCV) with sales of 46,671 vehicles grew by 3.9 per cent over the previous year. The company was able to achieve market share of 28.6 per cent in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle and truck segment combined when the total industry volume de-grew by 28.4 per cent.
As the country recovers from the pandemic, commercial vehicle sales are expected to grow and inch closer to reaching the pre-pandemic levels in FY22. It is also expected that as economic activities pick up, there will be greater demand for robust supply chain networks across the country, which would increase the demand for trucks. The announcement of a voluntary vehicle scrapping policy which is aimed at phasing out old vehicles is expected to translate into a marginal demand for new commercial vehicle in the short term. The infrastructure segment is expected to grow robustly through execution of projects in the national infrastructure pipeline. This will have a positive impact on the sales of commercial vehicles, especially the tipper and haulage segments.
The growth in the e-commerce sector has led to growth in the overall heavy commercial vehicles segment, and this trend is also set to continue in the coming years in a much more pronounced manner. The changing landscape of road logistics industry with the proliferation of hub-n-spoke model has resulted in increasing demand for commercial vehicles having higher tonnage and multi-axle vehicles. Commercialisation of coal mining, introduction of seamless composite exploration, mining and production regime for minerals is likely to drive growth in the heavy commercial vehicle segment. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Bank Of Baroda
CMP (Rs): 97.60
BSE CODE: 532134
Face Value(Rs) : 2
52 Wk High/Low : 103.70 /41.10
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 50,420.78
HERE IS WHY
✓ New channels gaining traction
✓ Robust improvement in digital platform
✓ Strong financials.
Bank of Baroda is a top-notch public sector bank with a business of around Rs 10 trillion and network of 5,500+ branches of which 105 overseas branches and offices are located in 24 countries, excluding India, spanning across Europe, the US, Africa, Asia and Australia. The company’s mission is to be a top-ranking national bank of international standards committed to augmenting stakeholders’ value through concern, care and competence. Nurturing enduring relationships with all its stakeholders since 1908 is a reflection of the bank’s commitment to fuelling inclusive growth, fulfilling entrepreneurial dreams and meeting aspirations of generations around the globe.
To make the banking experience more engaging and convenient, the bank has constantly reinvented its host of products and services, providing effective service to its customers through 25,000+ touch-points including branches, ATMs, e-lobbies, special mortgage stores, SME loan factories, agriculture loan factories and corporate financial services. Customercentricity and growth with quality have been the driving philosophies of Bank of Baroda, yielding rich dividends to all its stakeholders year after year, besides meeting the ever-growing aspirations of its customers.
The bank’s net income zoomed from Rs 6,816 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 7,892 crore in Q1FY22. The domestic CASA ratio improved 372 bps on a YoY basis standing at 43.21 per cent as compared to 39.49 per cent in the same quarter previous year. The net interest margin showed a rise of 53 bps on a YoY basis from 2.59 per cent to 3.12 per cent. Meanwhile, the CASA deposits stood at Rs 3,62,038 crore as compared to Rs 3,21,229 crore reported in Q1FY21, giving a robust rise. The operating profit ascended 41.2 per cent on a YoY basis.
The quarter recorded a net profit of Rs 1,209 crore, erasing the net loss of Rs 864 crore incurred in Q1FY21. A point to appreciate is that the GNPA ratio has shrunk 53 bps from 9.39 per cent in Q1FY21 to 8.86 per cent in Q1FY22. On the other hand, its capital adequacy ratio has expanded 256 bps from 12.84 per cent to 15.4 per cent YoY, indicating optimistic outlook. Also, the cost to income ratio has contracted by 574 bps from 53.19 per cent in Q1FY21 to 47.45 per cent in Q1FY22.
The bank has a meaningful presence in international operations with its JVs and subsidiaries. Approximately 12.4 per cent of the total business comes from overseas. The margins are expected to be steady in spite of reduced lending rates due to soft funding costs, lower reversals due to moderation in stress formation going forward. The performance of asset quality was noted to be decent amid a tough situation. Along with this, the shift to a new tax regime to augur profitability can be identified as one of the triggers for performance of price in the future. An improved outlook would cheer credit growth to rise with unlocking and speedy economic recovery. Also, the recent outlook upgrade by Moody’s on the Indian banking system is predicted to impact positively on Bank of Baroda as well. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Century Plyboards (India)Ltd.
CMP (Rs ): 539.70
BSE CODE: 532548
Face Value(Rs ) : 1
52 Wk High/Low : 576.05 / 170.50
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 11,999.56
HERE IS WHY
✓Healthy demand momentum
Century Plyboards (India) has been the front-runner in applying innovation at work. This simple philosophy has been the cornerstone of all its processes and technologies. It has led to design and deliver contemporary lifestyle statements that have become synonymous with modern living. Its award-winning products have been redefining Indian realty and bringing about a paradigm shift in the concept of living spaces. By giving more freedom to its users, it ensures they have more choices available that will help them in achieving what they desire. The company strives for working on new product concepts for today’s informed and discerning buyer – offering maximum choice to try out numerous permutations and combinations.
Century Plyboards is the unprecedented choice of architects and interior designers – they strongly recommend its products for transforming ordinary steel and concrete structures to expressions of one’s personality. From flexible plywoods that offer a unique blend of form and functionality to specially treated fire-retardant plywoods that find use in a myriad of construction purposes, the company has the right products to target different building needs. Currently, it is in the 26th year of operations, Century Plyboards enjoys a unique brand identity as the market leader with offerings that are considered industry benchmarks.
The company’s quarterly consolidated financials recorded net sales and other operating income for Q1FY22 at Rs 457.54 crore, recording an attractive rise of 125.6 per cent as compared to net sales and operating income of Rs 203.03 crore for Q1FY21. The company recorded an operating profit for Q1FY22 at Rs 65.44 crore, which jumped beyond 1,000 per cent as compared to Rs 3.99 crore registered for Q1FY21.
The net profit of Q1FY22 stood at Rs 31.07 crore, turning the net loss of Rs 11.8 crore recorded in Q1FY21. In terms of annual performance, the net sales and other operating income were reported to be Rs 2,130.36 crore for FY21, which descended by 8.06 per cent when compared to Rs 2,317.03 crore for FY20. FY21 reported an increase of 20.65 per cent in operating profit at Rs 352.83 crore as compared to Rs 292.43 crore for FY20. The net profit stood at Rs 191.22 crore in FY21 in comparison with net profit of Rs 125.29 crore reported in FY20, growing robustly by 52.62 per cent. Going through the main products, plywood (contributed 50 per cent of sales) reported strong growth of 126 per cent, led by robust volume growth of 119.4 per cent YoY and 2.8 per cent YoY increase in realisation on the back of price hike of 2 per cent in Q1FY22. MDF (contributed 20 per cent of sales) continued its growth traction as revenues increased by 200.4 per cent YoY primary on account of 154.8 per cent YoY growth in volumes and 17.9 per cent rise in realisation due to better product mix and price hike of 4 per cent.
We can observe that the company has reported robust growth in sales and improvement in margins across its segments despite the impact of the second wave of the pandemic. However, from July 2021 onwards the company could see signs of recovery in business with opening of the markets across the country and an improving business scenario in the real state sector. The company is expected to gain market share, especially in MDF and laminate segments. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Delhi Land And Finance (DLF) Ltd.
CMP (Rs ): 399.50
BSE CODE: 532868
Face Value(Rs ) : 2
52 Wk High/Low : 449.80 / 150.70
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 98,665.92
HERE IS WHY
✓Healthy demand momentum
✓Sustained quarterly performance.
DLF is the largest publicly listed real estate company in India with residential, commercial and retail properties in 15 states and 24 cities. DLF is primarily engaged in the business of development and sale of residential properties (the ‘development business’) and the development and leasing of commercial and retail properties (the ‘annuity business’). The company focuses on spearheading innovation through empowerment and optimism in order to build the foundation of India’s future on the legacy of the past. It holds 75+ years of experience in real estate development and has developed over 150 real estate projects. Area-wise, the company has developed more than 330 million sq. feet.
The company has recently declared its quarterly results for the first quarter of FY22. Its business has delivered sustained performance despite a challenging period and it remains confident of delivering its business goals. Its consolidated revenue stood at Rs 1,243 crore, reflecting a YoY increase of 92 per cent. Its EBITDA stood at Rs 498 crore, reflecting robust YoY growth of 400 per cent. The net profit for the quarter was recorded at Rs 339 crore, erasing the losses incurred in Q1FY21. The Board of Directors of the company recommended a dividend of Rs 2 per share. On an annual basis, the net sales and operating income were down by 10.99 per cent whereas operating profit improved by a mere 0.43 per cent in FY21 as compared to FY20. The net loss of Rs 1,479.20 crore recorded in FY20 turned positive with the net profit of Rs 477.30 crore in FY21. The company experienced an encouraging demand in the residential business.
Since the pandemic, the inherent demand for homes has gone up; people have now realised that home is the safest place and is an important asset class. Reacting to this sentiment, new sales bookings exhibited sustained performance sequentially and stood at Rs 1,014 crore, reflecting a YoY growth of 567 per cent. The company launched ‘Independent Floors’ across Gurugram and has bagged new product sales’ booking of Rs 542 crore during the quarter. There was a surplus cash generation of Rs 141 crore during the quarter. Continued focus on improving collections and tight cost control measures have contributed to surplus cash generation. The net debt stood at Rs 4,745 crore.
The company is excited about the growing demand in the residential markets and expects this growth cycle to continue in the long run. With this strong outlook and all the fundamental drivers supporting the residential segment, it continues to focus on bringing new product offerings across segments and geographies. The launch of Independent Floors across Gurugram continues to attract an enthusiastic response from the market and portrays healthy absorption trends. With all the retail malls now operational but with a few restrictions, faster recovery is expected with further stabilising of the economy. Owing to the healthy demand momentum and DLF being comfortably poised to scale up its business, we recommend BUY.
CMP (Rs ): 802.30
BSE CODE: 532174
Face Value(Rs ) : 2
52 Wk High/Low : 859.70 / 388.10
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 5,56,507.71
HERE IS WHY
✓Growth in digital and payments platforms
✓ Improving asset quality
✓Growth in product portfolio.
ICICI Bank is a leading private sector bank in India which currently has a network of 5,288 branches and 15,158 ATMs across the country. ICICI Bank offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and services to retail, SME and corporate customers. The bank has an extensive network of branches and ATMs. It is at the forefront of leveraging technology and offering services through digital channels like mobile and internet banking. The company works with a mission to grow its risk-calibrated core operating profit by delivering products and services that create value for customers, bringing together all its capabilities to seamlessly meet customer needs and conducting the business within well-defined risk tolerance levels.
In the areas of retail, SME and rural banking, the bank offers deposit, credit and other financial products and services to individuals, households and small businesses across India through its digital channels and extensive branch network spanning urban and rural areas. In the wholesale banking segment, the bank offers financial solutions to large and medium-sized companies and their business and channel partners, and to financial and government or public sector entities. Its treasury operations comprise management of the bank’s liquidity, government securities portfolio and interest rate risk, proprietary trading, and foreign exchange and derivative solutions for clients.
As regards the financial performance of the company, core operating profit (profit before provisions and tax, excluding treasury income) grew by 23 per cent on a YoY basis to Rs 9,518 crore in the quarter ended September 30, 2021. Net interest income grew 25 per cent in the current quarter as compared to the previous quarter in the same year. The net interest margin was recorded at 4 per cent for Q2FY22. Profit after tax grew by 30 per cent year-on-year to Rs 5,511 crore in Q2FY22. Meanwhile, total deposits grew by 17 per cent year-on-year to Rs 9,77,449 crore as of September 30, 2021. The average current and savings account (CASA) deposits in Q2FY22 were recorded 28 per cent higher on a YoY basis whereas the average CASA ratio stood at 44 per cent during Q2FY22. While the domestic loan portfolio showed improvement of 19 per cent, a bolt in the blue was the decline in net NPA ratio from 1.16 per cent on June 30, 2021 to 0.99 per cent on September 30, 2021, the lowest since December 31, 2014. The total capital adequacy ratio was recorded at 19.52 per cent and Tier I capital adequacy ratio was 18.53 per cent on a standalone basis.
The bank has reported strong results in Q2FY22 and has exhibited healthy improvement in the asset quality with decline in fresh slippages of advances and strong recoveries and upgradations in Q2FY22. Additionally, bank has added nine branches and reduced 96 ATMs in Q2FY22. It had a network of 5,277 branches and 14,045 ATMs as of end September 2021. The management commented that the bank would continue to grow its loan book according to its internal risk and return parameters. The company remains optimistic about the growth of the Indian economy and the many opportunities that it presents for it to grow with the picking up of vaccinations and deleveraging by corporate India. Hence, we recommend BUY.
JK Lakshmi Cement
CMP (Rs ): 616.90
BSE CODE: 500380
Face Value(Rs ) : 5
52 Wk High/Low : 815.25 / 275.15
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 7,231.41
HERE IS WHY
✓One of the cost-efficient producers of cement in
✓India Robust sales and distribution network
✓Experienced and competent management bandwidth.
JK Lakshmi Cement is a part of the prestigious JK Organisation. This renowned business house manages operations in India and abroad with a leadership presence in the fields of tyre, cement, paper, power transmissions, sealing solutions, dairy products and textiles. Being one of the top business names in the Indian cement industry, the company has an annual turnover of Rs 4,000 crore. The company partners with India’s leading corporations such as Larsen and Toubro, Reliance, NTPC and Essar for creating the success story of a ‘new’ India. The company is a chosen brand across all sections of customers such as housing projects, roads and bridges, airports, factories as well as individual house builders (IHB).
The company has established modern and fully computerised, integrated cement plants at Sirohi in district of Rajasthan and also in Udaipur district of Rajasthan (a subsidiary of the company) as well as in Durg district of Chhattisgarh. The combined capacity of the company is recorded to be 13.3 million MT per annum. JK Lakshmi Cement qualifies to be the first cement manufacturer in India that introduced coloured bags. Meanwhile, it has a wide product portfolio catering to varied construction requirements with cement grades like OPC 43 and OPC 53, blended cement (PPC, PSC and composite cement).
The consolidated quarterly financials of the company shows that its net sales grew by 45.42 per cent to Rs 1,325.58 crore in Q1FY22 in comparison with Rs 911.54 crore in Q1FY21. The operating profit rose by 53.13 per cent coming in at Rs 275.07 crore in Q1FY22 from Rs 179.63 crore in Q1FY21. The net profit jumped massively by 168.97 per cent, being at Rs 136.18 crore in Q1FY22 as compared to Rs 50.63 crore in Q1FY21. On the annual front, its net sales were observed at Rs 4,727.44 crore in FY21 as compared to Rs 4,364.07 in FY20, giving an increase of 8.33 per cent. The operating profit was recorded at Rs 1,011.22 crore in FY21, rising up by 19.81 per cent as compared to FY20. The net profit gave an increase of 66.48 per cent being at Rs 421.14 crore in FY21 as compared to FY20, recording net profit at Rs 252.97 crore.
It was observed that JK Lakshmi Cement squeezed its net debt by stringently monitoring its cost drivers while maximising cash generation. The favourable and steady cash generation augured in deleveraging the company’s balance-sheet. Also, the company implemented several initiatives to improve efficiencies and leverage input cost levers across the value chain. The margin expansion was due to product mix optimisation, prudent market mix, cost-efficiency initiatives and higher realisations. The premium cement brands gained traction during the year as their sales improved by 5 per cent YoY. An increase in volume and revenue growth is predicted going forward due to higher cement demand in its operating regions, high-quality realisations supported by the product mix, introduction of valueadded products and efficiency gains. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Larsen And Toubro Limited
CMP (Rs ): 1766.80
BSE CODE: 500510
Face Value(Rs ) : 2
52 Wk High/Low : 1,884.90 /920.50
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 2,48,174.62
HERE IS WHY
✓Robust order book
✓Diversified business portfolio
✓Healthy dividend payout.
Larsen and Toubro Ltd is an Indian multinational conglomerate which is primarily engaged in providing engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) solutions in key sectors such as infrastructure, hydrocarbon, power, process industries and defence, information technology and financial services in domestic and international markets. Strong, customer–focused approach and the constant quest for top-class quality has enabled them to attain and sustain leadership in its major lines of business for eight decades. It is engaged in core, high impact sectors of the economy and the company’s integrated capabilities span the entire spectrum of ‘design to delivery’. The company’s manufacturing footprint extends across eight countries in addition to India.
On the quarterly consolidated financial performance front, the company reported net sales and other operating income for Q1FY22 of Rs 29,334.73 crore, exhibiting growth of 37.98 per cent from Rs 22,037.37 crore in Q1FY21. Operating profit climbed by 19.63 per cent from Rs 4,501.76 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 5,385.25 crore in Q1FY22. Net profit grew by approximately 1.4 times from Rs 645.07 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 1,556.18 crore in Q1FY22. On the annual consolidated financial performance front, the company recorded net sales and other operating income of Rs 1,35,979 crore during FY21, registering a decline of 6.5 per cent. The decline was mainly due to the slowdown of project execution and manufacturing activity, affected due to lockdown- related disruptions in the first half of the year.
This was partially compensated for by a more normalised level of operations during the second half of FY2020-21. Operating profit for FY21 stood at Rs 26,744.49 crore, marginally higher than Rs 26,731.76 crore recorded in FY20. Net profit jumped by 19.26 per cent from Rs 10,822.32 crore in FY20 to Rs 12,906.88 crore in FY21. As of March 31, 2021, the order book at Rs 327,354 crore provides multi-year revenue visibility. The infrastructure segment has a 75 per cent share of the consolidated order book. The order book registered a growth of 7.7 per cent on the back of some mega orders secured during the year.
The phased recovery in economic activity over the next couple of years will result in tax buoyancy and consequently enable the government to forge ahead with various infrastructure projects. While the Union Budget 2021 highlighted large outlays on infrastructure, the government has also postponed the fiscal consolidation exercise to FY25, essentially creating more room for future capex spends. Over the last year, the company has been meticulously focused on divesting non-core assets, capturing cost efficiencies and leveraging technology for productivity gains. On the back of strong domestic wins in the infrastructure and hydrocarbon segments, the company achieved order inflow of Rs 1,75,497 in FY21. The company has gradually expanded its international footprint through geographic dispersion as a conscious de-risking strategy.
While the Middle East region has obviously remained an area of focus, the company has turned its attention to many countries in Africa as well as South East Asia. The company’s strategically diversified business portfolio, geographical dispersion, robust balance-sheet and strong order book are reliable signposts to a brighter future. Further, its proven execution strengths and committed workforce are helping it to successfully transition into a more digitally evolved work environment. This should enable the business to thrive and grow, once the challenges posed by the pandemic are overcome. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Laurus Labs Limited
CMP (Rs ): 516.15
BSE CODE: 540222
Face Value(Rs ) : 2
52 Wk High/Low : 723.55 / 251.00
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 27,672.58
HERE IS WHY
✓Robust research and development competencies
✓Expanding product portfolio.
Laurus Labs is a fully integrated pharmaceutical and biotechnology company with a leadership position in generic active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) with a major focus on anti-retro viral, Hepatitis-C, cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, central nervous system, proton pump inhibitors and oncology drugs. It also develops and manufactures oral solid formulations, provides contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) to global pharmaceutical companies and produces specialty ingredients for nutraceuticals, dietary supplements and cosmeceuticals. It also does animal origin free recombinant proteins in biotechnology.
In terms of quarterly consolidated financial performance, the company’s net sales and other operating income for Q1FY22 stood at Rs 1,278.5 crore, up by 31.22 per cent from Rs 974.32 crore in Q1FY21. Operating profit leaped by 40.57 per cent from Rs 285.41 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 401.2 crore in Q1FY22. Similarly, net profit also escalated by 40.65 per cent from Rs 171.78 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 241.61 crore in Q1FY22. The company said its growth was driven by sustained strong momentum across all business segments, particularly FDF (finished dosage forms) and synthesis.
In terms of annual consolidated financial performance, the company’s net sales and other operating income for FY21 stood at Rs 4,814 crore as against Rs 2,832 crore in 2019-20. Operating profit grew by 2.75 times to Rs 1,573 crore vis-a-vis Rs 570 crore in the previous year. Net profit grew by 3.86 times to Rs 984 crore in FY21 against Rs 255 crore in FY20. During the year, the company also acquired a 72.55 per cent stake in Richcore Lifesciences from two private equity funds, Eight Roads and Ventureast. The acquisition is aimed at diversifying and entering high-growth areas of recombinant animal origin free products, enzymes as well as building biologics at scale.
The global API market is expected to grow at a high single digit CAGR from 2020 to 2027 to reach USD 364.17 billion by 2027. The rising accessibility to affordable healthcare services has increased the demand for low-cost and high-quality medicines, particularly in the developing world. Consequently, the need for low-cost and high-quality APIs is increasing for manufacturing finished drugs. Laurus Labs currently supplies APIs to nine of the 10 largest generic pharmaceutical companies and has an advantage in backward integration. The company’s research-first approach has been critical to its success and a differentiating factor in the industry. Its strong research and development competencies have enabled it to improve the existing products and make inroads in areas with significant growth potential.
The company has been moving up the value chain into formulations by investing in developing products and building facilities to meet the most stringent regulatory expectations. The formulation business is expected to gain further momentum led by higher capacity and ANDA pipeline build-up for the US market. The expanding product portfolio, cost-effective healthcare solutions and technical expertise has won it long-standing relationships with multinational pharmaceutical companies. The company’s strong presence in the different therapies along with consistency in compliance and forward integration into the formulations business has cemented its position as an integrated niche pharmaceutical player. Hence, we recommend BUY.
CMP (Rs ): 567.50
BSE CODE: 531642
Face Value(Rs ) : 1
52 Wk High/Low : 606.00 / 355.05
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 73,485.73
HERE IS WHY
✓Healthy dividend payout.
Marico is one of India’s leading consumer products companies in the global beauty and wellness space. During FY 2020-21 it recorded a turnover of about Rs 80.5 billion (USD 1.1 billion) through its products sold in India and chosen markets in Asia and Africa. Marico touches the lives of one out of every three Indians through its portfolio of brands such as Parachute, Saffola, Parachute Advansed, Nihar Naturals, Mediker, Set Wet, Livon and Beardo. Headquartered in Mumbai, it is present in over 25 countries across the emerging markets of Asia and Africa. The company operates eight factories in India.
In terms of quarterly consolidated financial performance, the company’s net sales and other operating income for Q1FY22 stood at Rs 2,525 crore, up by 31.17 per cent from Rs 1,925 crore in Q1FY21. Operating profit climbed by only 4.53 per cent from Rs 486 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 508 crore in Q1FY22. Net profit de-grew by 6.41 per cent from Rs 390 crore in Q1FY21 to Rs 365 crore in Q1FY22. According to the company, its profit after tax was down due to exceptional gains in the base quarter. The company’s international business posted a strong broad-based recovery relative to the varying levels of impact in each of the markets in the base quarter. This was despite signs of moderation in demand witnessed due to the resurgence of the pandemic in Bangladesh and Vietnam towards the end of the quarter.
In terms of annual consolidated financial performance, Marico posted net sales and other operating income of ₨ 8,048 crore (i.e. USD 1.1 billion), 10 per cent higher than the previous year, with an underlying domestic volume growth of 7 per cent and constant currency growth of 7 per cent in the international business. The business delivered an operating margin of 19.8 per cent and recurring net profit of ₨ 1,162 crore, a growth of 11 per cent over the last year on a like-to-like basis. Despite significant supply chain disruptions owing to the lockdown during the first quarter, the business progressively scaled up with restrictions easing subsequently. The operating margin (before corporate allocations) for the India business was healthy at 21.3 per cent in FY21 as against 22.4 per cent in FY20. The profitability was impacted by severe input cost push during the second half of the fiscal, which is expected to ease over the next year.
Over the decades Marico has become a market leader by consistently increasing volume growth in its core Saffola and Parachute brands along with widening its circle of competence by venturing into new categories (skincare, health foods, male grooming and fabric care) through acquisitions or mergers, launch of new products, innovations in existing product portfolio, divesting low-margin brands and expanding the distribution network across unexplored geographies. Marico continues to invest in innovating incessantly. In recent years the company has successfully developed a wide supply chain and a strong brand recall amongst its consumers. This gives the company a wide economic moat in the industry. Overall the company has solid fundamentals along with good growth prospects in the near future in the post-pandemic era. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Power Grid Corporation Of India
CMP (Rs ): 185.05
BSE CODE: 532898
Face Value(Rs ) : 10
52 Wk High/Low : 209.75 / 126.83
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 1,29,080.76
HERE IS WHY
✓Adoption of latest technology
✓Growth in power sector
✓Strong government backing.
Power Grid Corporation of India Limited is an Indian government electricity board and a Maharatna public sector undertaking which is owned by the Ministry of Power, Government of India and is headquartered at Gurugram. The company is mainly engaged in the transmission of bulk power across different states of India. It possesses 1,72,154 circuit kilo metres (ckm) transmission lines along with 262 sub-stations and 4,46,940 MVA transformation capacity. The company provides transmission-related consultancy to more than 150 domestic clients and has its global footprint in 20 countries, catering to more than 25 clients.
In the telecom segment, the company owns and operates approximately 66,922 km of telecom network. It has a point of presence in 714 locations and intra-city network in 206 cities across India. Since 1993 the company has been paying a dividend and has 51.34 per cent holding by the Government of India and the balance of 48.66 per cent by the public. The company bears in-house expertise for domestic as well as international transmission sector consultancy. It has been diversifying in the telecommunication business using existing transmission assets coupled with investment in energy efficiency and investment in smart grid.
The financial performance by the company shows that on a consolidated quarterly basis the net sales and other operating income increased to Rs 10,216.48 crore in Q1FY22 as compared to Rs 9,457.40 crore in Q1FY21, bagging gains of 8.03 per cent. The operating profit stood at Rs 9,173.68 crore in Q1FY22 as against operating profit of Rs 8,700.94 crore in Q1FY21, registering an increase of 5.43 per cent. Q1FY22 recorded net profit of Rs 5,981.03 crore as compared to net profit of Rs 2,000.53 crore in the same quarter in the previous year, gaining massively. On an annual basis, its net sales and operating income rose by 5.02 per cent from Rs 37,743.54 crore in FY20 to Rs 39,639.79 crore in FY21. The operating profit rose by 6.82 per cent in FY21 as compared to FY20. The net profit jumped 8.41 per cent in FY21, recording at Rs 11,821.76 crore as compared to Rs 10,904.27 crore in FY20.
The Ministry of Power has fast-tracked the planning and approval process for power transmission projects in a step towards achieving the government’s energy transition goal which focuses on renewable power. The centre will soon offer 44 new power transmission projects worth Rs 41,369 crore with most projects under the Green Energy Corridors (GEC) plan. The establishment of clean and green electricity-generating capacities bundled with the development of related transmission and distribution infrastructure is crucial for India’s energy security and therefore provides ample and sustainable opportunities for the perpetual long-term growth of the sector. As such, Power Grid Corporation of India finds itself poised for long-term benefits. Driven by years of sectoral knowledge, large pool of experienced professionals and the confidence of the central and state governments, Powergrid Corporation of India has been regularly undertaking assignments in the various emerging business areas with related adjacencies. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
CMP (Rs ): 794.40
BSE CODE: 524715
Face Value(Rs ) : 1
52 Wk High/Low : 850.00 / 452.60
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 1,90,598.49
HERE IS WHY
✓Increased investments in global specialty portfolio
✓Robust pipeline of NDAs and ANDAs
✓Incremental contribution from experienced field force.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is the world’s fourth-largest specialty generic pharmaceutical company and a leader in India. The company’s global presence is supported by more than 40 manufacturing facilities spread across five continents, research and development centres across the globe and a multi-cultural workforce comprising over 50 nationalities. Sun Pharmaceuticals fosters excellence through innovation supported by strong research and development capabilities comprising around 2,000 scientists and research and development investments of over 7-8 per cent of its annual revenues. The company has manufacturing capabilities for a variety of dosage forms such as injectables, sprays, ointments, creams, liquids, hormones, drug delivery systems, tablets and capsules. It aims to deliver quality products at affordable prices, and over the years has earned the trust of patients and medical professionals across its key markets. Sun Pharmaceuticals is growing its portfolio of specialty products, branded generics and pure generics across 100+ countries globally. In-depth research and development and use of high-end technology are integral to the company’s progress which has always focused on both organic and inorganic growth with proactive acquisition of businesses and in-licensing of specialty molecules.
Analysing the performance of the company from a financial point of view, for the first quarter of FY22, on a consolidated basis, the company recorded net sales and other operating income of Rs 9,718.74 crore which increased by 28.13 per cent from Rs 7,585.25 crore reported in Q1FY21. The operating profit recorded at Rs 2,973.60 crore in Q1FY22 as compared to an operating profit of Rs 1,997.30 crore in Q1FY21. Q1FY22 recorded a net profit of Rs 1,408.65 crore against net loss of Rs 2,429.81 crore in the same quarter in the previous year.
On the annual front, its net sales and operating income grew by 2.01 per cent from Rs 32,837.50 crore in FY20 to Rs 33,498.14 crore in FY21. The operating profit expanded by 22.31 per cent in FY21 as compared to FY20. The net profit declined by 45.43 per cent in FY21 recording Rs 2,284.68 crore as compared to Rs 4,186.79 crore in FY20. Coming to the ratios, ROCE improved from 11 per cent in FY20 to 13.5 per cent in FY21. ROE has jumped from 9.1 per cent in FY20 to 12.5 per cent in FY21.
After facing a hard time for more than three years in the US, the company’s flagship product Ilumya is continuously ramping up sales, with Cequa also showing good traction. The company possesses an unparalleled reach in domestic formulations (DF) with an industry-leading connect with doctors and field force strength and productivity. The CAGR of DF has not been that favourable to the industry at 7.7 per cent but Sun Pharmaceuticals has outperformed with CAGR of DF at 14.3 per cent YoY in past year. The addition of MRs is predicted to push the outlook for DF over the next 2-3 years. While peers are cautious regarding expansion, Sun Pharmaceuticals has boosted its field force to increase its reach beyond the metros and Tier I cities. Hence, we recommend BUY.
Wipro Limited CMP (Rs ): 647.50
BSE CODE: 507685
Face Value(Rs ) : 2
52 Wk High/Low : 739.80 / 331.20
Mcap Full ( Rs Cr.) : 3,54,308.20
HERE IS WHY
✓Sustained quarterly performance
✓Healthy dividend payout.
Wipro is a leading global information technology, consulting and business process services company. It harnesses the power of cognitive computing, hyper-automation, robotics, cloud, analytics and emerging technologies to help clients adapt to the digital world and make them successful. The company is recognised globally for its comprehensive portfolio of services, strong commitment to sustainability and good corporate citizenship. It has over 2,20,000 dedicated employees serving clients across six continents. With a track record of over 30 years in IT services, it is focused entirely on the global information technology business.
In terms of quarterly consolidated performance, the company reported net sales and other operating income for Q2FY22 of Rs 19,668.90 crore, up by 30.29 per cent from Rs 15,096.70 crore in Q2FY21. Operating income soared by 17.10 per cent from Rs 3,992.40 crore in Q2FY21 to Rs 4,675.10 crore in Q2FY22. Net profit for Q2FY22 stood at Rs 2,931.60 crore, exhibiting solid growth of 17.97 per cent from Rs 2,485 crore reported in Q2FY21. During the quarter, the company witnessed broad-based growth across all markets, sectors and global business lines. It successfully added two clients in the USD 100 million-plus category and two in the USD 50 million-plus bracket.
The company also added a record 11,475 people in the second quarter of FY22. In terms of annual consolidated performance, the company reported net sales and other operating income for FY21 of Rs 61,934.90 crore, marginally higher from Rs 61,137.60 crore in FY20. Operating profit grew by 13.9 per cent from Rs 15,067.3 crore in FY20 to Rs 17,162.10 crore in FY21. Net profit jumped by 11.12 per cent to Rs 10,855 crore in FY21 to Rs 9,768.9 crore in FY20. The company’s operating metrics have shown consistent improvement, with utilisation and off-shoring being at its highest ever.
According to the Strategic Review 2021 published by NASSCOM, India’s technology industry is forecasted to grow at 2.3 per cent to reach approximately USD 194 billion in fiscal year 2021 (excluding e-commerce). Exports are estimated to grow at 1.9 per cent to reach approximately USD 150 billion in fiscal year 2021 and the domestic sector is forecasted to reach approximately USD 45 billion in fiscal year 2021, growing at 3.4 per cent. The growth is expected to be driven by increased demand for digital transformation and infrastructure modernisation. Wipro has a global footprint in six continents with a robust client base.
It has a major share of India’s offshore IT and BPO exports which is growing at 15 per cent CAGR. On the technical know-how front, the company is an innovation leader in automation, digital transformation, robotics and cloud and cognitive computing. Wipro has also established a partner ecosystem with companies such as Cisco, HP, SAP, Oracle, IBM and Microsoft. This helps the company to get a competitive advantage in the market. Wipro also has a lower voluntary attrition rate as compared to the industry rate. Overall the company has a wide economic moat due to its scale, market presence, innovation and workforce. Hence, we recommend BUY.
(Closing price as of Oct 29, 2021)