War, Trade and Q4 Data: Markets at a Crossroads

Domestic markets displayed resilience despite power blackouts, blaring sirens, and heightened volatility during the India-Pakistan war

After a much-awaited rebound that investors had been hoping for over the past six to seven months, the benchmark indices entered a phase of cautious consolidation. Over the recent fortnight, markets remained largely flat, awaiting a decisive trigger to define the next directional move—either upward or, potentially, downward. The unfortunate terror attack in Pahalgam introduced a layer of geopolitical uncertainty, prompting questions around India’s possible response. The Nifty VIX, a key indicator of market volatility and investor fear—surged over 25 per cent during the fortnight, signalling heightened nervousness.